Some major companies have filed plans for satellite-based AI data centres in the future. One Saskatchewan researcher and astronomer is asking them to consider the consequences for everyone.

Samantha Lawler, an associate professor of astronomy at the University of Regina, recently published a research paper examining the potential impact of regulatory filings involving major tech players like SpaceX and Blue Origin, owned by billionaires Elon Musk and Jeffrey Bezos, respectively.

Another filing is from Cowboy Space, owned by Baiju Bhatt, the former co-founder and CEO of stock trading platform Robinhood.

Currently in the peer review stage, Lawler’s paper titled “Rings in the Sky” paints a picture that even one of five possible projects going ahead could have severe consequences for the night sky and stargazers not just in Canada, but worldwide.

“It’s actually pretty horrifying to think about, but it would be a ring of satellites all moving across the sky together,” Lawler said. “Much brighter than the satellites that we see in the sky right now.”

What is an orbital data centre?

Orbital data centres are proposed as a series of satellites known as constellations that would deliver “unprecedented computing capacity to power advanced artificial intelligence (“AI”) models and the applications that rely on them, according to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) filing from SpaceX.

“By directly harnessing near-constant solar power with little operating or maintenance costs, these satellites will achieve transformative cost and energy efficiency while significantly reducing the environmental impact associated with terrestrial data centers,” SpaceX said.

The company contends that the system would go so far as putting humanity on a first step towards “becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization,” one that is able to harness the whole of the Sun “supporting AI-driven applications for billions of people today and ensuring humanity’s multi-planetary future amongst the stars.”

SpaceX is proposing to launch “up to one million satellites” as part of its constellation known simply as the SpaceX Orbital Data Center System. It’s the largest of the three projects covered in Lawler’s research.

Blue Origin’s application for what it calls “Project Sunrise” would consist of up to 51,600 satellites.

“The Project Sunrise system will ease mounting pressure on U.S. communities and natural resources by shifting energy – and water intensive compute away from terrestrial data centers, reducing demand on land, water supplies, and electrical grids,” Blue Origin’s application said.

Cowboy Space’s Stampede project would include up to 20,000 satellites. The proposal’s timeline puts a target of 2028 for the system’s first launch. Blue Origin set a timeline to launch 50 per cent of its satellites “within six years following grant of the authorization” and the other half coming online three years after that.

SpaceX did not offer a target timeline for its project in the filings.

‘Go see the night sky now’

Lawler’s point is echoed by John Barentine, a frequent colleague and the president of a group known as the Center for Space Environmentalism in the U.S.

“What’s proposed compared to the status quo right now is remarkable, it is a sea change that is coming,” Barentine said. “Go see the night sky now, because a change is coming that will radically transform its visual appearance.”

Barentine said the orbits the satellites would be using would make them visible throughout the night – not just during the morning and evening like most of today’s existing satellites. He added that’s especially true in northern latitudes like Canada.

“Particularly in the months around the summer solstice in June, a lot of these satellites will be visible all night,” Barentine said. “So, there won’t be a dark time where you can go out and look at the night sky and not be impacted by them.”

Barentine said the status quo drastically increasing from data centres or any other satellite-based projects to 50,000 or 100,000 or as many as 1.7 million, the drastic impact would be easily visible.

“I can’t fully get my head around what the night sky would look like, given what the simulations are telling us,” Barentine said.

“There are certainly times of nights where there would be more moving, artificial objects in the night sky than stars that people would typically see.”

In terms of timeline, Lawler used Starlink as a comparison for the kind of scale companies are aiming for with any orbital data centres. Since Starlink launched its first group of satellites in May 2019, SpaceX has been able to put around 11,000 satellites in orbit in a period of just over seven years.